The exit poll 2024 predictions for the Lok Sabha elections have sent shockwaves through the political landscape, with all major surveys projecting a resounding victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). As the dust settles and the nation awaits the official results, the opposition has responded to these predictions with a mix of skepticism and determination.
Congress MP Rahul Gandhi, in his first reaction to the Exit Poll 2024 predictions, dismissed them outright. He made a reference to late Punjabi singer Moose Wala’s song “295,” saying that these exit polls were akin to a “fantasy poll.” Rahul Gandhi’s statement went viral on social media, capturing the attention of voters across the country. His succinct dismissal reflects the party’s refusal to accept the landslide projections for the NDA.
Opposition Rejected Exit Poll 2024 Predictions
The Congress party, led by its senior leaders Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge, categorically rejected the recent exit polls. These polls projected a sweeping victory for the NDA, with over 350 out of 543 seats. The INDIA bloc, on the other hand, was projected to secure only a handful of seats. Congress leaders argue that the exit polls do not align with the ground reality and are based on assumptions rather than empirical evidence.
In a surprising move, the Congress party announced that its leaders would not participate in debates related to Exit Poll 2024. Congress leader Pawan Khera emphasized that voters had already cast their ballots, and the results would be out on June 4. Later, they agreed to participate in the discussions.
Sanjay Raut, a Member of Parliament from the Shiv Sena, minced no words when discussing the exit polls. He labeled them a “corporate game and a fraud.” According to Raut, there is immense pressure on media companies conducting these polls, leading to skewed results. He confidently predicted that the opposition INDIA bloc would win between 295 and 310 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, forming the next government.
Akhilesh Yadav minced no words when reacting to the Exit Poll 2024 findings. He questioned the very foundation on which these predictions are based, asserting that the “basis of the exit polls is not EVM (Electronic Voting Machine).” Akhilesh Yadav reiterated that the INDIA bloc would secure more than 295 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha.
Yadav also took a swipe at news channels, accusing them of showing inflated numbers in exit polls. According to him, these channels are attempting to curry favor with those in power and put undue pressure on officials.
Arvind Kejriwal echoed similar sentiments, asserting that all exit polls lacked credibility. He pointed out that one particular exit poll had given the BJP 33 seats out of a total of 25 in Rajasthan—a mathematical impossibility. “The entire exit poll is fake,” Kejriwal declared. His concern extended beyond mere criticism; he urged counting agents to remain vigilant during the final stages of vote tallying to expose any potential Electronic Voting Machine (EVM) manipulation.
Mamata Banerjee has dismissed these exit polls as “fake” and “manufactured at home”. She believes that they do not reflect the ground reality and criticized the media for showcasing them.
Shashi Tharoor dismissed the exit polls as “deeply unscientific.” He emphasized that what truly matters is the actual votes cast by the people, not mere predictions.
Exit polls have been a topic of intense discussion, and Jairam Ramesh, the Congress General Secretary in-charge of Communications, asserted that these predictions are false. According to Ramesh, the INDIA alliance (a coalition of opposition parties) will secure no less than 295 seats in the Lok Sabha elections. The INDIA alliance includes parties like the Congress, Trinamool Congress (TMC), and other regional parties. Congress leader Supriya Shrinate also expressed her views on the exit polls while talking to PTI.
“Modi’s Exit Poll has no credibility, wait for June 4th. People’s Exit Poll has given INDIA alliance 295 seats. The BJP is presently at about 220 and NDA together is at about 235.”
— Supriya Shrinate (@SupriyaShrinate) June 1, 2024
pic.twitter.com/VYhMXZB9uF
Ramesh’s claim echoes the optimism of the Congress party, reminiscent of the 2004 elections when they unexpectedly formed the government under the leadership of Sonia Gandhi.
Somnath Bharti, an Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader, took a bold stance. He dismissed all exit poll predictions, claiming that people have heavily voted against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) this year. In fact, he went a step further and vowed to shave off his head if Prime Minister Narendra Modi becomes the PM for the third time in a row. Bharti believes that the fear of Narendra Modi prevents exit polls from accurately reflecting his potential defeat
RJD leader Manoj Jha asserted that this time, Bihar will witness a parivartan (change). The INDIA bloc, led by Tejashwi Yadav, has campaigned vigorously, and Jha believes that their efforts will yield positive results. Jha believes that the channels running Exit Poll 2024 have received instructions from the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO). He alleged that the PMO has spent a significant amount of money on this work.
Hannan Mollah, a leader from the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)), accused pro-BJP factions of orchestrating a “calculated conspiracy” through exit polls to undermine the opposition’s morale.
Many BJP leaders also reacted to the exit poll 2024 results. Rajasthan Chief Minister Bhajanlal Sharma expressed confidence in Prime Minister Modi. He stated that people have faith in PM Modi, and the BJP would sweep all 25 Lok Sabha seats in Rajasthan.
Uttarakhand Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami also reacted to the Exit Poll 2024. He anticipated that the BJP’s seat count would increase further when the actual counting takes place.
Exit Poll Accuracy
As we analyze the Exit Poll 2024, it’s essential to recall the 2019 elections. Back then, an average of 13 exit polls underestimated the NDA’s performance, projecting a combined tally of 306 seats. In reality, the NDA secured a whopping 353 seats, while the UPA trailed with 120. The BJP alone won 303 seats, highlighting the unpredictability of exit polls. Will history repeat itself in 2024? Only time will tell.
Exit polls in India are conducted to estimate how people voted in a particular election. They are based on interviews with voters right after they exit the polling stations, as well as other calculations related to voter data. However, despite their popularity, exit polls are not always accurate:
- Methodology: Exit polls are conducted by various agencies, and their accuracy depends on factors such as sample size, geographic coverage, and voter candidness. While cluster voting patterns can be revealing, some voters may conceal their true preferences, leading to potential inaccuracies.
- Erratic Results: Exit polls have been hit or miss historically. For instance, last year, many polls estimated incorrect winners in the Legislative Assembly elections for Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, while some were way off the mark in Rajasthan. Similarly, during the 2023 Karnataka assembly elections, most exit polls failed except for one.
- Political Preferences: People tend to take interest in exit polls that align with their political preferences. Accuracy is often judged based on personal opinions about political parties.
- Broadcasting Restrictions: The Election Commission of India (ECI) mandates that exit polls be released only after polling has been completed in all phases to avoid influencing voters who are yet to vote.
The opposition’s reaction to the exit polls reflects a mix of skepticism, defiance, and anticipation. As the nation eagerly awaits the official results, political pundits and citizens alike brace themselves for the final verdict that will shape India’s future for the next five years.
