MP Chief Minister Mohan Yadav has expressed strong confidence in the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) chances of a decisive victory in the upcoming Amarwara assembly bypoll. “I am happy, and today we have filed nomination papers for Amarwara bypolls, and our candidate has been declared…We (BJP) will definitely win elections with a huge margin,” CM Yadav told ANI. BJP candidate Kamlesh Shah, accompanied by CM Yadav and other party leaders, officially filed his nomination in Chhindwara district.
#WATCH | Chhindwara: After Kamlesh Shah files his nomination for Amarwara assembly by-polls, Madhya Pradesh CM Mohan Yadav says, "… This by-election has brought us together with Kamlesh Shah and we pledge to have an overall welfare and development of the people of… pic.twitter.com/kd2Myw6eFU
— ANI MP/CG/Rajasthan (@ANI_MP_CG_RJ) June 18, 2024
The upcoming Amarwara assembly bypoll has become a focal point of political interest in Madhya Pradesh. Let’s delve into the reasons behind this buzz and the implications for the key players involved.
Congress Defection Sparks Bypoll
The by-election was triggered by the resignation of MLA Kamlesh Pratap Shah, who switched allegiances from the Congress to the BJP. Shah, a three-time Congress MLA from Amarwara, joined the ruling BJP ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, leaving his legislative membership vacant. This defection has not only caused a significant shift in the political landscape but also raised questions about the motivations and future actions of key political figures in the region.
Historical Context of the Amarwara Seat
Historically, the Amarwara (ST) seat has seen a seesaw battle between the BJP and the Congress. The BJP has won this seat twice—in 1990 and 2008—while the Congress secured it nine times. Additionally, in 2003, the Gondwana Gantantra Party (GGP), a tribal outfit, clinched this constituency, highlighting the dynamic and competitive nature of this seat. This history of fluctuating control underscores the importance of the upcoming bypoll, as both major parties seek to assert their dominance.
During the recent Lok Sabha elections, BJP candidate Banty Vivek Sahu defeated former Chhindwara MP Nakul Nath (Congress) by a significant margin of 1.13 lakh votes. Under the Amarwara assembly seat, the BJP secured 93,512 votes, while the Congress received 78,473 votes. This considerable lead in the general elections has bolstered the BJP’s confidence heading into the bypoll. The performance of the parties in the Lok Sabha elections is seen as a critical indicator of voter sentiment and party strength in the region.
In the November 2023 state elections, Kamlesh Shah, then with the Congress, triumphed over BJP nominee Monika Manmohan Shah Batti by a margin of 25,086 votes. However, Shah’s subsequent defection to the BJP necessitated the bypoll. This move has created a ripple effect in the local political arena, raising the stakes for both parties. Shah’s defection is seen as a strategic gain for the BJP and a significant setback for the Congress, which now faces the challenge of reclaiming the seat.
Key Dates for the Bypoll
The Election Commission announced that voting for the Amarwara assembly seat will take place on July 10, with results to be declared on July 13. The election notification will be issued on June 14, and candidates can file nominations until June 21. The scrutiny of poll papers will occur on June 24, and the last date for withdrawing nomination papers is June 26. These dates are crucial for both parties as they mobilize their resources and strategize for the election.
Important Timelines:
- June 14: Election notification issued
- June 21: Last date for filing nominations
- June 24: Scrutiny of poll papers
- June 26: Last date for withdrawal of nominations
- July 10: Voting day
- July 13: Result declaration
BJP’s Strategic Position
The BJP is riding high on its recent electoral success and the defection of Kamlesh Shah. Chief Minister Mohan Yadav has expressed strong confidence in the BJP’s chances of a decisive victory. The party’s campaign strategy is expected to focus on its governance achievements and development initiatives. By leveraging its organizational strength and highlighting its recent electoral victories, the BJP aims to consolidate its position in Amarwara.
Congress’s Counterattack
The Congress, despite recent setbacks, is preparing for a robust campaign. The party aims to challenge the BJP by focusing on local issues and criticizing the government’s policies. The Congress’s campaign strategy will likely revolve around addressing voter grievances and emphasizing its historical presence in the region.
Ensuring a free and fair election is a priority for the Election Commission. Measures are being implemented to maintain security and uphold the integrity of the voting process. This includes deploying adequate security personnel, monitoring polling stations, and ensuring compliance with election laws.
Context of the Bypolls
The by-elections are being held to fill vacancies in 13 assembly constituencies across seven states, including Rupauli (Bihar), Vikravandi (Tamil Nadu), Amarwara (ST, Madhya Pradesh), and Jalandhar West (SC, Punjab). These seats became vacant due to resignations or the deaths of sitting MLAs. Candidates have until June 21 to file their nominations, with the option to withdraw candidature until June 26.
Significance of the Amarwara assembly Bypoll
The Amarwara assembly bypoll is not just a local election; it holds broader implications for the political landscape in Madhya Pradesh. A victory for the BJP would reinforce its dominance in the state and bolster CM Mohan Yadav’s administration. Conversely, a strong performance by Congress could signify a resurgence and provide momentum for future elections. As the by-election approaches, the Congress is gearing up to announce its candidate for Amarwara. The Pradesh Congress Committee (PCC) has sent a panel of four names to the All India Congress Committee (AICC) for scrutiny. Speculation is rife that Kamal Nath himself will lead the campaign for the party in this crucial bypoll.
Not to be left behind, the GGP, a tribal outfit, has already declared its candidate for the by-election.
The by-elections across the 13 assembly constituencies are crucial for both the ruling party and the opposition. They serve as a barometer for public sentiment and can influence the political strategies of all parties involved. The outcomes will likely shape the narrative leading into the next general elections.
Conclusion
The Amarwara assembly bypoll is a critical event for the BJP and Congress, with significant political stakes for both parties. Chief Minister Mohan Yadav’s confidence in a BJP victory underscores the party’s strategic approach and organizational strength. As the election date approaches, all eyes will be on Amarwara to see which party can secure the support of the electorate and emerge victorious.
