Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is currently on his first visit to Pakistan, for three days, (April 22- 24). The visit has made international headlines as it came just days after airstrikes by Iran and Israel in each other’s territories.
As Islamic nations, Iran and Pakistan share a common ground in their support for the Palestinian cause and their criticism of Israeli actions in Gaza. Beyond the Gaza issue, they also want to mend relations, after conducting cross-border strikes against each other in January.
For Pakistan, this visit also came with a moment of surprise. In his media statement after talks with Pakistani PM Shehbaaz Sharif, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi skipped any mention of the Kashmir conflict. Interestingly, a day prior, the Pakistani PM had raised the Kashmir issue with him and thanked publicly for “supporting” Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir.
How has Iran’s stand on Kashmir evolved?
Before the 2000s, Iran kept things pretty neutral. It used to criticize both India and Pakistan when it came to the issue of human rights in Kashmir. Its stand included supporting dialogue between India and Pakistan and not poking into other countries’ business unnecessarily.
Then in the 2000s, the Iranian government started speaking up more for the rights of Muslims in Kashmir. Their top leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei started asking Muslims worldwide to support freedom for Kashmiris.
In 2010, Iran’s top leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, asked Muslims everywhere to support the fight for freedom in Jammu and Kashmir.
But in 2019, when India abolished Article 370 and made big changes in Kashmir, Iranian leaders were relatively silent. They showed they were worried but focused on talking things through and finding peace, without directly criticizing India.
In the 2020s, Iran is careful about their friendship with India. They’re walking a tightrope, showing support for Kashmiri rights while keeping their relationship with India in mind.
Clearly, Iran has been quite vocal about the Kashmir conflict in the past, but it seems like the tune has changed lately.
But why exactly does this region matter to them? Religion certainly plays a part. Iran, a Shia Muslim nation, shares a religious connection with the Muslim-majority population of Kashmir.
Why does India matter to Iran?
India is a major buyer of Iranian oil despite US sanctions, a vital source of income for Iran. This also helps Iran lessen its dependence on a limited set of trading partners.
Both have cooperated in developing the Chabahar Port in Iran, which gives India access to Afghanistan and Central Asia bypassing Pakistan. Upsetting India could have a significant economic impact on Iran in these times.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has surely shown his political maturity by focusing on Iran-Pakistan relations exclusively in this visit.
Both agreed to ban terrorist organizations within their borders.
Iran and Pakistan will work together more closely on managing their borders and taking steps to stop smuggling and drug trafficking.
After the recent tensions in January due to airstrikes in each other’s territories, this visit has worked towards improving the relations between Iran and Pakistan. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has been hailed by the Pakistani PM, Shehbaaz Sharif as an “ocean of political intelligence and wisdom” during this visit.
Why the visit has concerned the US?
Iran and Pakistan have been working on a Natural Gas pipeline project, which will connect the natural gas fields in Iran to Pakistan, a country with a fragile economy that faces energy scarcity. The US on the other hand, has put sanctions on Iran due to its efforts to become a nuclear power.
In March 2024, the US State Department spokesperson Mathew Miller clearly stated that the United States of America doesn’t support Pakistan going forward with the gas pipeline from Iran. He also cautioned Pakistan about the risk of sanctions if they continue with the project.
Pakistan, to assert its sovereignty in this situation, has started working on the project despite US threats. In this background, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi visited Pakistan, which is bound to raise US concerns. The coming months, especially the reported deadline for Pakistan in September 2024, may shed light on the project’s future.
Conclusion
The visit of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Pakistan is a signal that Iran and Pakistan are turning over a new leaf in their relationship. Economic cooperation, particularly on energy projects, offers mutual benefits to both nations. Shared security concerns and a critical stance towards Israel’s operation in Gaza have also warmed them toward each other in the present times.
It will be quite interesting to watch how both countries enhance their relationship by working together and increasing mutual trade in the shadow of US sanctions. This visit is certainly an interesting event in the geopolitics of the Middle East and South Asia in 2024.
Update: The sudden demise of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has cast a shadow of uncertainty over the future of Pakistan-Iran relations. Raisi’s Iran had a distinctive approach to regional politics, often intersecting with Pakistan’s interests.
Afghanistan serves as a prime example. Both countries have significant stakes in Afghanistan’s stability, yet their methods and allies within the country differ. Iran’s influence in western Afghanistan sometimes counters Pakistan’s strategic objectives. Without Raisi’s balancing act, Iran’s stance towards Afghanistan may shift, affecting collaboration or tensions with Pakistan.
The broader Middle Eastern dynamics, especially the Iran-Saudi Arabia rivalry, profoundly impact Pakistan-Iran relations. Historically, Pakistan has maintained a delicate balance, nurturing close ties with Saudi Arabia while engaging with Iran. Raisi managed Iran’s assertive stance in the region with pragmatism, allowing occasional cooperation with Pakistan despite regional frictions.
The new Iranian leadership’s approach to Saudi Arabia could either ease or exacerbate these tensions, putting Pakistan’s diplomatic tightrope walk to the test. As the world watches, the new Iranian leadership’s choices will shape the trajectory of this critical bilateral relationship.
Economically, Pakistan and Iran share both potential and pitfalls. The Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline, a flagship project aimed at addressing Pakistan’s energy shortfall, symbolizes the economic ties between the two nations. Despite international sanctions on Iran, Raisi played a crucial role in advancing these economic collaborations.
However, with his passing, the continuity of such initiatives hangs in the balance. The new Iranian leadership may deprioritize these projects or face greater challenges in negotiating their continuation.
